According to several crypto analysts, altcoins are exhibiting a notable breakout, hinting at a potential shift toward an altcoin-dominated market phase.
Analysts observed that the total market capitalization of altcoins is rising, breaking out of longstanding downward trends. Technical and on-chain analyst Ali Martinez noted that while it’s uncertain if a full-blown altcoin season has arrived, the current developments represent a promising start.
Analyst Caleb Franzen shared insights that altcoins measured through TradingView indexes like TOTAL.3 and OTHERS have surpassed significant moving averages, specifically the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). Franzen highlighted that the last such breakout occurred in July 2023, during which altcoins used these EMAs as dynamic support to achieve higher highs. He emphasized the importance of monitoring daily closes to confirm this trend.
Altcoin breakout (Caleb Franzen)
Negentropic also pointed out the cyclical nature of the crypto market, suggesting that altcoins typically follow Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, often entering a vigorous phase once Bitcoin breaks its all-time high and moves into uncharted territory. The analysis indicates that after several instances since May where Bitcoin surged without triggering an altcoin season, current indicators show a simultaneous uptick in both Bitcoin and altcoin markets.
The Bitcoin-Altcoin Cycle chart from Swissblock Technologies illustrates this relationship. The chart depicts the inverse dynamics between Bitcoin and altcoin seasons throughout the year. When the Altcoin Season Index is high, Bitcoin’s dominance tends to be lower, and vice versa. Currently, the index suggests that altcoins are gaining strength alongside Bitcoin rather than lagging behind as in previous cycles.
Altcoin cycle (Swissblock)
Bitcoin season dwarves altcoins so far in 2024
Despite these positive signs, it’s important to consider the broader market context. Over the past nine months, altcoins have generally underperformed compared to Bitcoin in terms of price recovery and proximity to their all-time highs. Bitcoin is trading around $64,334, approximately 12.77% below its ATH of $73,750, reached in March 2024. In contrast, many altcoins remain significantly below their peak prices. For instance, Dogecoin is about 86.12% below its ATH, Cardano is down by 89.22%, and Polkadot has declined by 92.49% from its highest value.
This disparity suggests that while Bitcoin has regained much of its value, altcoins have struggled to recover to the same extent. Factors contributing to this performance gap may include increased regulatory scrutiny affecting smaller cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin’s market maturity offering resilience during volatility, and heightened institutional interest predominantly benefiting Bitcoin.
The current breakout in altcoin markets could signify a change in this trend. If altcoins continue to build on this momentum, it may lead to a more balanced recovery across the wider crypto market.
Presently, Bitcoin dominance is at 57%, down slightly from 58.6% on Sept. 19. It reached its lowest on Sept. 10, 2022, at 38.9%, and has been climbing steadily for the past two years. Over the past five years, the highest it reached was 72% toward the top of the 2019 and 2021 bull runs.
