Nine out of nineteen core Bitcoin metrics tracked by CryptoQuant currently suggest a bearish outlook for the top digital asset. Just five are bullish, and the remaining five indicate a neutral position.

Bitcoin’s price currently stands at $69,405.59, reflecting a 4% decrease over the past 24 hours but a 2.61% increase over the last seven days and a 15.01% rise over the past 30 days. The digital asset’s market capitalization is approximately $1.37 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $45.9 billion.

Bitcoin Exchange metrics

Exchange indicators reveal nuanced market forces. The exchange reserve has increased by 0.18% in the last 24 hours but decreased by 0.16% over the past week, suggesting lower selling pressure as fewer coins are held on exchanges. The exchange netflow total is bearish, with net deposits significantly higher compared to the seven-day average, indicating potential increased selling pressure as more investors move holdings onto exchanges.

Mining activity presents a neutral stance. The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) is at 0.3315, showing that miners are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to the one-year average. The Puell Multiple stands at 0.9894, indicating miners’ revenue is within a moderate range relative to annual averages. This suggests miners are neither contributing significantly to selling pressure nor accumulating more coins than usual.

Bitcoin on-chain indicators

On-chain indicators offer mixed signals. The adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is bearish at 1.0199, indicating more investors are realizing profits, which in a bull market can signal a potential market top. Conversely, the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) is bullish at 0.4286, reflecting low movement from long-term holders who appear motivated to retain their coins. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) stands at 0.5235, placing investors in the ‘Belief’ phase characterized by high unrealized profits that can precede either continued growth or market corrections.

Transfer volume has decreased by 50.37% compared to yesterday, a bearish indicator suggesting reduced activity in the amount of Bitcoin being moved on the network. In contrast, active addresses have increased by 26.52%, a bullish sign pointing to heightened participation as more wallets are used to send and receive coins. The total number of transactions has decreased by 28.77%, which may reflect short-term declines in network usage but could also result from transaction batching or efficiency improvements.

Bitcoin derivatives

In the derivatives market, signals are predominantly bullish. The funding rate is positive at 0.0050, indicating long position traders are dominant and willing to pay short traders, reflecting confidence in future price increases. The Taker Buy Sell Ratio shows buying sentiment is dominant, with 51.06% of buy orders filled by takers compared to 48.94% of sell orders. Open interest is neutral, having decreased by 5.39% in the last 24 hours but increased by 5.31% over the past week to approximately $21.8 billion. This suggests a growing interest in derivatives trading, with open interest recently hitting an all-time high, contributing to increased liquidity and volatility, potentially supporting the current price trend.

Significant liquidations have occurred, with $93.24 million of long positions liquidated in the last 24 hours compared to $9.31 million in short positions. This imbalance indicates many traders who anticipated price increases were forced to exit positions due to the recent price decline, a bearish signal that may contribute to short-term downward pressure.

Sentiment and technical analysis

Sentiment indicators highlight regional variations and investor behavior. The Coinbase Premium is bearish at -0.1007, showing relatively weak buying pressure from US investors on Coinbase compared to other exchanges. The Korea Premium is bearish at 1.45, indicating intense buying pressure from Korean retail investors, suggesting localized optimism or speculative activity. The Fund Premium is bearish at -0.1142, reflecting potentially upcoming weak buying sentiment from institutional investors participating in funds and trusts after some record days.

Technical analysis provides a neutral outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, suggesting the market is neither overbought nor oversold and may continue without a strong directional bias. The Stochastic oscillator is at 72.2, indicating the current price is within a moderate range relative to the highest and lowest prices of the past two weeks.

Overview

The interplay of these indicators paints a complex picture of the Bitcoin market—factors such as increased active addresses and bullish sentiment in the derivatives market point toward potential upward movement. However, elements like high net deposits on exchanges, investors realizing profits, and significant liquidations of long positions suggest caution.

Contrasting signals between different investor types highlight the nuanced nature of the market. Retail investors, particularly in Korea, show strong buying interest, possibly driving localized price support. Institutional investors may now become more cautious, as evidenced by the negative Fund Premium, potentially due to broader market considerations or risk assessments.

The decrease in transfer volume and transactions could indicate a temporary slowdown in on-chain activity, possibly resulting from strategic holding patterns among investors anticipating future price movements. The increase in active addresses suggests more participants are engaging with the network, potentially preparing for future transactions or market entry.

The derivatives market’s bullish indicators, such as the positive funding rate and dominant buying sentiment among takers, point to trader expectations of near-term price appreciation. Open interest levels, while neutral, indicate sustained engagement in futures and options contracts, which can amplify market movements due to leverage effects.

Mining metrics remain stable, with miners operating within moderate ranges concerning both selling behavior and revenue. This stability suggests miners are not exerting significant downward pressure by offloading large amounts of Bitcoin or accumulating excessively, affecting supply forces.

The market appears at a crossroads, with indicators suggesting potential for upward and downward movements. The ‘Belief’ phase identified by the NUPL metric indicates investors hold substantial unrealized profits, which historically can precede continued rallies or prompt profit-taking leading to corrections.

Given the mixed signals across different metrics, market participants may need to exercise increased diligence before next week’s US election. Monitoring these external variables alongside on-chain and market indicators may provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential movements.